Week: 01/01/12

Overall:
NCAAB: 5-3-0
NBA: 5-3-0
Levin Locks: 49-24-1 (0-2 on Bowl Locks-counted in this record)
Bowl Season: 12-4-0
NCAAF regular season: 123-89-2
NFL: 116-97-4
Total: 261-196-6

This will be the toughest week. Many teams have nothing to play for while some teams have everything to play for. Division games are always tough to pick, too. Here’s the situation: http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/50960/nfl-playoff-scenarios-3

Lions @ Packers

Very first game has the implications that I talked about above. The Superbowl goes through Lambeau on the NFC side, while the Lions will play (at) the winner of the Cowboys/Giants game if they win. The Lions beat the Cowboys once this year. If they lose, they could end up playing  at the Superdome (where they loss already) or at Candlestick (Lions already loss to the 49ers at home-Handshake Gate part II?). That should be incentive enough, but this Lions teams lacks discipline most weeks and lacks confidence a lot of the time. The Lions need this win. Green Bay has a terrible pass defense and passing is the Lions game. We know the Lions have not been a good first half team. I think we see a 17-13 packers lead at halftime dissolve into a Lions 30-24 victory.

Pick: First Half Packers (I’ll update it when I find the line)
Pick: Lions -3
Pick: Over 45.5

49ers @ Rams

The 49ers will be very prepared to go into this game. A first round bye is on the line. Again, if that does not make San Fran prepared enough, then all Harbaugh has to do is remind his team that the team that could get the first round bye if they lose lost this exact same game earlier in the year. On top of that it is a division game, so the 49ers will want to embarrass the other team. 49ers win 30-6 with a defense of TD (or possibly off of 10 FGs). Could a team really fold their hand completely if they are down by a lot going into the 4th quarter, with the opportunity to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes in mind?

Pick: 49ers -10.5 (Levin Lock)
Pick: Under 35.5

Panthers @ Saints

The Panthers have the most swag in the league or as the use to call it in this scenario: pride. Last week was an emotional win for the Saints, clinching up the division and breaking the Dan Marino passing record using everybody involved with full service (http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2011/12/video-drew-brees-perfect-postgame-speech-after-breaking-dan-marinos-single-season-passing-yardage-record/), but instead of coming out flat I think the Saints come out strong in the first half, knowing that there is potential for a first round bye. When they go in at halftime, things might change come the end of the 3rd quarter when they find out how much the 49ers are winning by in their game. The priority will be to make sure that no one gets hurt. I think the Saints are up 20-13 at halftime. Panthers have been the king of backdoor covers all year. Then, (eventually) enter Chase Daniels. Seems fitting that the Saints win a last second field goal 33-30 a boost of fake confidence heading into the playoff game next week (I think they have potential to lose the Falcons, but we will talk about that next week if it happens). I really like the spread plays here more (almost want to take first half over).

Pick: First half Saints (I’ll update it when I find the line)
Pick: Panthers +9
Pick: Over 55

Colts @ Jaguars

Is it possible that these teams might kneel the ball the entire game and throw the ball to the other team in the 4th quarter for 5 pick 6s? Both of these teams have a chance to have a great draft pick, so this might be possible. (Note: if you ever actually played a sport, you know this is not actually something that will happen. You can’t throw a game). And in this case you literally can’t throw the game because these QBs are terrible (I was wrong about Gabbert-I liked him from watching him play in 1 preseason game). I think the Jaguars take this one 23-10. I like the Jaguars play more than the over/under, but you have to take the under. I am going to make you go back to week 1 and read my analysis of the Colts/Texans game. I think I perfectly summed up how the Colts season would go (biased opinion-it’s worth the read)

Pick: Jaguars -3.5
Pick: Under 37

Bears @ Vikings

Speaking of abysmal offenses. We have a 3rd string QB and a 3rd string RB vs. a 3rd string QB and 2nd string RB. My first hunch is the Vikings (my ‘Note to Self’ always says stop second guessing myself). Vikings win 17-13.

Pick: Vikings pick’em
Pick: Under 41

Jets @ Dolphins

My analysis of the first game basically talked about this future matchup: “I feel like when the Dolphins play at the Jets, it is low scoring, but when they play in Miami it is high scoring (again, not a fact, just what I perceive).” I never like picking Jets game because they are Jekyll and Hyde like, while I don’t like picking Miami games because I’m a Dolphin fan and think they are terrible.

Pick: Over 41

Redskins @ Eagles

I have been terrible at picking over/under (basically took all overs) in NFC East games this year. The Redskins gave up 33 points at home to the Vikings last week. The Eagles were terrible earlier in the year, but they were NEVER the Vikings bad. I was going to only take the over, but I think the Eagles take this 34-20.

Pick: Eagles -8.5
Pick: Over 46

Bills @ Patriots

Patriots have the opportunity to get home-field throughout the AFC playoffs with a win. Not only did will they get 1st place in the AFC this week, but New England also received the honor of being the drunkest states: http://www.masslive.com/mywideworld/index.ssf/2011/12/springfieldholyoke_area_ranked_among_the_drunkest_cities_in_america.html which is great news to Patriots QB who told fans earlier in the year to come drunk: http://articles.nydailynews.com/2011-09-14/sports/30182002_1_tom-brady-drinking-fans. I digress. Belichick and Brady don’t seem to forget things too easily. After losing to the Bills earlier in the year, the Pats will repay the favor x6. 41-23.

Pick: Patriots -11 (Levin Lock)
Pick: Over 51

Titans @ Texans

The most valuable weapon returns this week for the Texans. No, not Andre (although he should play this week). Nope, not Schaub (he’s on the IR). Wade Phillips will be back. I will continue my stand that the Titans need to start Locker. This could be Hasslebacks last game  ever and the Texans are not playing for anything (as far as playoff seeding goes), but they will be playing for the confidence that they have lost the last few weeks. I really love the the Texans to win 23-20.

Pick: Texans +3

Buccaneers @ Falcons

I would like this play a lot more if it was a one o’clock kickoff because if the Lions win during the early games, then the Falcons have nothing to play for, EXCEPT getting redemption for their loss to the Bucs at the beginning of the year and taking out their anger of last night’s defeat on THE WORST defense in the league. If the Lions lose, then the Falcons might win by 40 (okay, maybe not that much, but it would be a lot). Hopefully, Mike Smith either lies to them and tells them the Lions loss or doesn’t let his team know the score of the game.

Pick: Falcons -11.5

Chiefs @ Denver

Speaking of redemption games. Orton goes back to the stadium where he started his season to try and prevent his former team from making the playoffs. While the Denver Tebow’s are in a win and they’re in situation. Tebow controls his own destiny (insert religious joke here). Since Tebow took over, Denver actually has been a better road team. Is it because they are a mile closer to heaven and he can’t take the pressure of higher powers (pun intended) watching. Take in that joke for a moment, it could be the last Tebow joke for the year (if they lose), which has been going on for since almost the inception of this blog. Just like I can’t pick against the Patriots (I actually hate the Patriots, but they are just so good), I can not pick against Tim Tebow. I will take the under, but I think Kansas City (I should really PLAY MY GUT!!!!-I’ll grab the Chiefs because we know the Broncos don’t win by more than 3 when they do win) wins 17-16.

Pick: Under 37
Pick: Chiefs +3.5

Chargers @ Raiders

The Raiders are playing for a playoff spot (there are so many different scenarios involving Oakland) and the Chargers are playing for…um…Norv Turner’s job (I guess?). The Chargers’ players (for the most part) on offense will have all of their players back. So, they area basically only playing for their bosses’ job (imagine if we had control if our boss came back or not). The Raiders’ paid soooo much for Palmer and they are not guaranteed a playoff spot with a victory, but that is (obviously) where it all starts for them to have a chance. The sheer fact that Norv Turner and Philip Rivers are so good in December/January makes me take the over. Raiders take this one 30-23.

Pick: Raiders -2.5
Pick: Over 48.5

Steelers @ Browns

Oh lookie what we have here. James Harrison gets to play the Browns for the 2nd time in less than 4 weeks (Thaddeus Lewis from Duke, get warmed up!).  Without Roethlisberger and McCoy, this game could be similar to the score the last time that they met when Pittsburgh won 14-3. Cleveland has kept it close the last two weeks. Just like last week, I LOVE the under, but out of fear of a pick 6, I will not make it a lock.

Pick: Steelers -7
Pick: Under 36.5

Ravens @ Bengals

All 4 of the Ravens losses have been on the road, so it is only fitting that they need this win for a first round bye. The Ravens have beaten Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Cleveland on the road, but loss to the Tennessee, Jacksonville, Seattle, and San Diego (the only team of the 4 who is really fighting for anything is Jacksonville-first pick. Tennessee needs a lot of help and San Diego is fighting for their coach). I actually think the Bengals pull this one off. I want to only take the under, but I said I would stick with my hunches. In a defensive minded game the Bengals somehow score 22 and the Ravens somehow score 16. Still have to stick with the under with these two defenses (part of me says don’t, but can’t argue with the numbers).

Pick: Bengals +2.5
Pick: Under 38

Cowboys @ Giants

Two weeks ago, I summed up the NYG play: “The giants average margin of victory is 6 points. This is what I have been saying for weeks. I will coin his play as “Eli Excitement” because he isn’t good until the game is getting out of hand, then he will come back or he plays crappy against crap teams and does well against good teams (which Giants fans can call it excruciating ”Eli Excitement” because it definitely has to pain New York fans to watch.” The Cowboys are  a good team. So, the G-men will take this game. Romo is hurt and the Cowboys began their year with a loss on Sunday Night football in Metlife and that is how their season will end. Let’s go 31-23.

Pick: Giants -2.5

And so no one feels left out (All for equal opportunity to pick games): I would lean toward the Cardinals -1.5 and under 41

Levin Locks: 2

Other Picks: 26

Total Games: 28

Thanks to everyone who’s given me feedback all year. I really enjoyed writing this up each week.